Price Target & Estimates

For the last five quarters, guidance and analyst consensus were surpassed or matched by the actual values. The surprise is usually not big but is positive. Still Q3 2011 saw its guidance lowered by the company. This situation requires further explanation as it gave place to a very sharp drop in share price. 

In July 2011 Crocs issued Q3 2011 guidance on revenues and EPS of $280 million and $0.4 respectively. At this time, analyst consensus was $265 million and $0.32. In October 2011 Crocs lowered its previous guidance to $274 million in revenues and EPS of $0.32. Although this is definitely a bad sign for investors, notice that revenue guidance was still higher and EPS was in line with analyst consensus. In the same day, Crocs share price plunged 40% and until now it wasn't able to recover to previous levels.

After this, Company issued Q4 2011, Q1 2012 and Q2 2012 guindance bellow analysts consensus. Even though actual values were better than both guidance and analysts estimates, investors are waiting for a signal to get back in this stock.

As we can see, most analysts are positive on Crocs with a mean price target that represents more than 50% upside potential.

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